Introduction to Evidence-Based Medicine

William J. Powers, M.D.-- Departments of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Radiology
Washington University School of Medicine -- Presented July 11, 2006


The Perils of Subgroup Analysis


Negative Trials with “Positive” Subgroups
Increased Type I error due to multiple comparisons
 

The conventional criterion for statistical significance is  that there is less than a 1 in 20 chance (5% probability, p < .05) that an observed  difference between two experimental groups could have occurred by chance alone even if there is really no difference.

The more statistical comparisons that are made between two groups, the greater is the likelihood that one will yield  p < .05. With 20 comparisons, the likelihood that one comparison yield p< .05 approaches 100%.

Statistically “positive” subgroups in overall negative trials should be viewed as unproven hypotheses unless the subgroup analyses were specified a priori  and corrected for the effect of multiple comparisons.

 
 
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